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Socio-Economic Policy Brief

Source: www.unescap.org
Topic: Economic Policy

Sort Desciption: The Socio-Economic Policy Briefs are coordinated by the Poverty and .... This Socio-Economic Policy Brief has been issued without formal editing. ...

Content Inside: November 2005 Issue No. 2 The Socio-Economic Policy Briefs are coordinated by the Poverty and Development Division (PDD) UNESCAP Email: ratnayaker@un.org Socio-Economic Policy Brief United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific Oil prices reached just under $70 per barrel in August 2005 before easing to around $54 by end-November 2005. This round of oil price increase is unprecedented in that it has doubled since 2004 and trebled since 2002 (table 1). The current price hikes have sent shock waves across the region and Governments are looking for ways to minimize its adverse economic and social effects without slowing down the pace of growth. The current real price of oil adjusted for world export prices is above the peaks of 1974 and 1985 and is almost equal to the highest level reached in 1980. Most experts are agreed that higher oil BRACING FOR HIGHER OIL PRICES prices are here to stay although short-term price fluctuations will continue to be part of the emerging scenario. WHY ARE OIL PRICES GOING UP? A combination of changing supply and demand conditions are contributing to the recent oil price hikes. The global low spare capacity caused by inadequate investments in both upstream and downstream activities (especially in refineries) contributed to the rise in prices. New oil fields are not adding to global capacity at the rates witnessed in the past. Political uncertainty in a number of oil-exporting countries added to supply owes. Hurricanes Katrina and Rita disrupted supplies at a time when supply constaints were having an impact on global oil prices. It is perhaps demand conditions that seem to have had the upper hand in the current spate of oil price hikes. The annual global demand for oil grew by 3.2 per cent in 2004 (figure 1) the highest since 1976. Demand in the United States of America has been and continues to be one of the most crucial factors in determining global oil prices. In more recent times fast growing ...

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