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Numeracy and Decision Making

Source: vlab2.gsb.columbia.edu
Topic: Decision Making

Sort Desciption: merical information in ways that matter to decision making. STUDY 1: NUMERACY AND ATTRIBUTE ..... of numeracy and affect in decision making. We examined the ...

Content Inside: Research Article Numeracy and Decision Making Ellen Peters 12 Daniel Vstfjll 13 Paul Slovic 12 C.K. Mertz 1 Ketti Mazzocco 4 and Stephan Dickert 12 1 Decision Research Eugene Oregon; 2 University of Oregon; 3 Gteborg University Gteborg Sweden; and 4 University of Trento Trento Italy ABSTRACT A series of four studies explored how the ability to comprehend and transform probability numbers relates to performance on judgment and decision tasks. On the surface the tasks in the four studies appear to be widely different; at a conceptual level however they all involve processing numbers and the potential to show an influence of affect. Findings were consistent with highly numerate individuals being more likely to retrieve and use appro- priate numerical principles thus making themselves less susceptible to framing effects compared with less numer- ate individuals. In addition the highly numerate tended to draw different (generally stronger or more precise) affective meaning from numbers and numerical compari- sons and their affective responses were more precise. Al- though generally helpful this tendency may sometimes lead to worse decisions. The less numerate were influenced more by competing irrelevant affective considerations. Analyses showed that the effect of numeracy was not due to general intelligence. Numerical ability appears to matter to judgments and decisions in important ways. Although many judgments and decisions rely heavily on un- derstanding basic mathematical concepts little research has examined the role of numerical ability or numeracy in decision tasks. Numeracy is defined as the ability to process basic probability and numerical concepts. Making good decisions in the real world requires some numerical ability. For example Hamm Bard and Scheid (2003) found that greater numeracy was associated with more accuracy in making judgments about probabilities associated with prostate cancer screening. Gur- mankin Baron and Armstrong (2004) foun ...

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