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GLOBAL ECONOMIC CONDITIONS AND PROSPECTS
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Topic: Economic Conditions
Sort Desciption: GLOBAL ECONOMIC CONDITIONS AND PROSPECTS. Paper prepared for ASEAN by the UNCTAD Secretariat. Paper prepared as part of UNCTADs technical assistance to ...
Content Inside: UNITED NATIONS CONFERENCE ON TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT GLOBAL ECONOMIC CONDITIONS AND PROSPECTS Paper prepared for ASEAN by the UNCTAD Secretariat Geneva February 1999 UNCTAD/GDS/MDPB/4 Distr.: General 25 February 1999 English only GLOBAL ECONOMIC CONDITIONS AND PROSPECTS Paper prepared for ASEAN by the UNCTAD Secretariat Paper prepared as part of UNCTADs technical assistance to ASEAN on macroeconomic and financial policies and submitted to the seminar ASEAN Macroeconomic Outlook and Economic Recovery 10-11 February 1999 Manila Philippines. CONTENTS Chapter Page A. ECONOMIC GROWTH . 1 1. Overview of growth in 1998 1 2. Current economic conditions and outlook for 1999 . 3 3. Downside risks and scenarios . 9 4. Policy challenges 12 B. INTERNATIONAL TRADE . 14 1. Recent developments . 14 2. Commodity markets 17 C. FINANCIAL MARKETS AND PRIVATE CAPITAL FLOWS . 19 1. 1998: a year of volatile financial markets 19 2. Anatomy of the financial crisis in Russia 22 3. Capital flows currency markets and policy responses 23 a. Industrial countries . 23 b. Emerging markets 25 4. Prospects for private capital flows to emerging markets . 28 Tables 1 World output 1996-1998 . 30 2 Baseline forecasts of GDP growth in 1999 for selected economic regions and countries by various institutions 31 3 1999 GDP growth of selected economic regions and countries under the low-case scenario of various institutions . 32 4 Exports and imports by major regions and economic groupings 1996-1998 33 5 Export and import volume of selected Asian economies 1996-1998 34 6 Exports and imports of selected Asian economies: first three quarters of 1998 . 35 7 Movements in exchange rates June 1997 - September 1998 . 36 8 Current account positions of selected developed and developing countries 1996-1998 37 9 Exports of selected Asian economies to North America and Latin America 1992-1996 38 10 World primary commodity prices 1995-1998 . 39 11 East Asian production and consumption of m ...
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