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Economic Conditions in 2001 and Outlook for 2002...

Source: unpan1.un.org
Topic: Economic Conditions

Sort Desciption: 2002 when signs of the global economic pickup become clearer and exports conditions. improve. Nevertheless some downward risks remain as Thailand now ...

Content Inside: 1 Economic Conditions in 2001 and Outlook for 2002 2 Executive Summary The Thai economy slowed down since the beginning of 2001 due mainly to the adverse impact of the global economic slump on the external sector. For the entire year the value of exports contracted with the electronics sector being hit the hardest same as in other regional countries with high share of electronics exports. Part of the contraction in foreign demand was offset by domestic stimulus from the government sector especially in the second half of the year. In FY 2001 the government cash deficit stabilized at 2.1 percent of GDP meanwhile in the first quarter of FY 2002 the government adopted a front-loaded fiscal policy equivalent to about 1.3 percent of GDP to shore up domestic demand. In addition several measures were implemented to boost private spending for example the postponement of the VAT rate hike and granted tax and non-tax incentives to real estate activities. Together with other favorable factors: very low real estate prices in comparison to the levels witnessed during the asset price boom; low interest rate environment; and financial institutions inclination toward lending to borrowers with steady income like civil servants therefore private demand for housing picked up around the end of the year leading to an acceleration in construction activities and a better investment outlook. However a full recovery was restrained by unfavourable export conditions. With substantial production capacity remaining unutilised demand for new investment in machinery and equipment was low especially in export-oriented industries. In addition financial institutions were also cautious in extending credits to sectors with lacklustre business prospects. Household consumption continued to expand but at a slower rate than in 2000. Consumer confidence was partly shaken by the terrorist attack in the US that later spread into a war against terrorism. Nevertheless when the tension was eased ...

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