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Port Operations and Economic Conditions
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ECONOMIC CONDITIONS AND INCUMBENT SUPPORT IN AFRICAS NEW ...
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Topic: Economic Conditions
Sort Desciption: Economic Conditions and Support for the Incumbent in the 1996 Zambian Presidential ElectionsVoting-Eligible Population Baseline ...
Content Inside: COMPARATIVEPOLITICALSTUDIES/April2002 PosnerSimon/AFRICASNEWDEMOCRACIES In this article the authors investigate the effects of economic conditions on support for an incum- bent regime in a new African democracy. Drawing on two unique data sources from Zambiathe results of a 1200-respondent postelection survey and a pair of 10000-household poverty sur- veys conducted in the same years as that countrys first two posttransition general electionsthe authors find evidence that declining economic conditions coincide with the withdrawal of sup- port for the incumbent president although the effects of changing economic conditions are rela- tively small compared to noneconomic determinants of the vote such as ethnic affiliation and urban/rural location. The authors also find that to the extent that voters respond to declining eco- nomic conditions they do so via withdrawal from the electoral process rather than via support for the opposition. The findings suggest that African electorates are at least modestly responsive to economic trends but that noneconomic motivations still predominate in any given election. ECONOMIC CONDITIONS AND INCUMBENT SUPPORT IN AFRICAS NEW DEMOCRACIES Evidence From Zambia DANIEL N. POSNER University of California Los Angeles DAVID J. SIMON Harvard University D o voters in Africas new democracies withdraw their support from incumbent regimes when their living conditions decline? This is an important question both for understanding the dynamics of political and eco- nomic reform in theregion and for contributing to thecomparativeliterature on economic voting. Unfortunately at present it is a question without an answer because the effects of economic conditions on support for incumbent regimes in Africa have yet to be systematically investigated. Although stud- 313 AUTHORSNOTE: The authors are grateful for comments receivedat the 2000 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association andthe 2001 Annual Conference of the Stanford- ...
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