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Economic and Policy Implications of Wind-Borne Entry of Asian ...
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Topic: Economic Policy
Sort Desciption: Economic and Policy Implications of the Wind-Borne Entry of Asian Soybean Rust into the United States/OCS-04D-02. Economic Research Service/USDA ...
Content Inside: United States Department of Agriculture www.ers.usda.gov Electronic Outlook Report from the Economic Research Service Mike Livingston Rob Johansson Stan Daberkow Michael Roberts Mark Ash and Vince Breneman Abstract American soybean producers and the research regulatory and extension institutions supporting them are preparing for the potential wind-borne entry of Asian soybean rust into the United States. For the first year of the pathogens establishment in this country this analysis estimates that the expected value of net economic losses will range from $640 million to $1.3 billionless than 1 percent of net economic benefits derived from agricul- tural activitydepending upon the geographic extent and severity of the pathogens initial entry. Annual losses in the ensuing years could average anywhere between $240 million and $2.0 billion depending on the severity and extent of subsequent outbreaks. The large range of damage estimates reflects the uncertainty associated with eventual effects of soybean rust in the United States. But even high-end figures are small relative to the total value of soybeans in production and consumptiona finding that confirms the resiliency and adaptability of U.S. agriculture. Acknowledgments The authors sincerely thank Keith Menzie World Agricultural Outlook Board USDA; Larry Salathe Office of the Chief Economist USDA; Joy Harwood D. Demcey Johnson Craig Osteen Kitty R. Smith Utpal Vasavada Paul Westcott and Keith Wiebe Economic Research Service USDA; Lynn Garrett Roger Magarey and Matt Royer Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service USDA; Rick Bennett and Kent L. Smith Agri- cultural Research Service USDA; Randy Schnepf Congressional Research Service; and Scott Isard University of Illinois. Media Contact Utpal Vasavada: 202-694-5540; vasavada@ers.usda.gov OCS-04D-02 April 2004 Economic and Policy Implications of Wind-Borne Entry of Asian Soybean Rust into the United States 2 Economic and Policy Implications of the ...
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