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Port Operations and Economic Conditions
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Does Regional Economic Performance Affect Bank Conditions? New ...
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Topic: Economic Conditions
Sort Desciption: measures of regional economic conditions based on bank deposit shares .... While it is intuitive that local economic conditions should affect bank health ...
Content Inside: Does Regional Economic Performance Affect Bank Conditions? New Analysis of an Old Question Mary Daly John Krainer and Jose A. Lopez Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Research Department 101 Market Street San Francisco CA 94105 Draft date: November 28 2003 Abstract: The idea that regional economic performance affects bank health is intuitive and broadly consistent with the aggregate banking data. That said micro-level research on this relationship provides a mixed picture of the importance size and timing of regional variables for bank performance. This paper helps reconcile the heterogeneous findings of previous research by: (1) employing a unique composite measure of regional economic performance that combines several regional indicators into a single index; (2) constructing bank-specific measures of regional economic conditions based on bank deposit shares that account for banks presence in several states; and (3) estimating models for all banks and intra- and inter- state banks separately. Empirical results based on this bank-specific composite regional measure point to a tractable link between regional economic performance and bank health. The importance of regional variables holds for both intra- and inter-state banks. Out-of- sample forecasts indicate that the composite index also helps tie down the relative riskiness of bank portfolios across states. Finally although interstate banks do seem to diversify away some of their portfolio risk our analysis suggests it is too soon to conclude that interstate banks are immune from regional influences. Acknowledgments: The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco or the Federal Reserve System. We thank seminar participants at the Conference on the Use of Composite Indices in Regional Economic Analysis the Federal Reserve System Conferences on banking studies and regional studies and Fred Furlong Andy Haughwout ...
does regional economic performance affect bank conditions, regional economic conditions and aggregate bank performance
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