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Decision Making

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Sort Desciption: The Extreme Event Decision Making workshop was held at the National Science ..... extreme event decision making research. The next step and the final ...

Content Inside: Decision Making Center for Policy Research Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany Decision Risk and Management Science Program National Science Foundation Workshop Report Thomas R. Stewart and Ann Bostrom t.stewart@albany.edu ann.bostrom@pubpolicy.gatech.edu June 2002 http://www.albany.edu/cpr/xedm/ Extreme Event Decision Making Workshop Report CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW.1 2. OUTLINE OF MAJOR ISSUES.1 3. BACKGROUND .2 3.1 D EFINITION OF EXTREME EVENT .2 3.2 P ROPERTIES OF EXTREME EVENTS .3 3.3 W HY DO EXTREME EVENTS DEMAND OUR ATTENTION NOW ?.4 4. WHAT DO WE KNOW?.5 5. WHAT DO WE NEED TO KNOW?.6 5.1 O RGANIZATIONAL STUDIES .6 5.2 R ISK COMMUNICATION .7 5.3 T RADEOFFS .7 5.4 P LANNING .8 5.5 L EARNING .8 5.6 D ECISION MAKING BEHAVIOR .8 6. CONCLUSION .9 REFERENCES:.10 APPENDIX A: WHAT DO WE KNOW?.11 APPENDIX B: WHAT DO WE NEED TO KNOW?.13 APPENDIX C: PARTICIPANT LIST.19 APPENDIX D: BRIEF STATEMENTS BY PARTICIPANTS .23 ATTACHMENT: NSF DESCRIPTION OF EXTREME EVENTS RESEARCH.85 This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. SES-0078783. Any opinions findings and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation. 1 1. Introduction and overview This report is the product of a workshop that explored judgment and decision making concerning extreme events. This workshop brought together a diverse group of researchers to examine how to advance our understanding of judgment and decision making related to extreme events. The Extreme Event Decision Making workshop was held at the National Science Foundation Headquarters Arlington Virginia April 29-30 2001. The purpose of this workshop was: a) to develop recommendations for research topics in extreme event decision making that are suitable for funding by the Program on Decision Ris ...

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