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Content Inside: Copyright Global Development and Environment Institute Tufts University G LOBAL D EVELOPMENT AND E NVIRONMENT I NSTITUTE W ORKING P APER N O . 03-04 Current Economic Conditions in Myanmar and Options for Sustainable Growth David Dapice May 2003 Tufts University Medford MA 02155 USA http://ase.tufts.edu/gdae G-DAE Working Paper No. 03-04: Current Economic Conditions in Myanmar and Options for Sustainable Growth 1 Current Economic Conditions in Myanmar and Options for Sustainable Growth David Dapice Tufts University david.dapice@tufts.edu Abstract In this paper an extensive report on the economy of Myanmar prepared in 1998 is supplemented by more recent reports as of fall 2002 (included as appendices). The economy of Myanmar is one of the poorest in South East Asia. Despite relatively rapidly growth during the 1990s per capita income by 1998 was little higher than in the middle 1980s. Inflation rates are high the currency value has fallen sharply and Myanmar has one of the worlds lowest rates relative to income of government revenue and non-military spending. Agriculture in Myanmar has an unusually high share (59%) of GDP. Despite a high reported growth rate yields for most food crops have remained stagnant or dropped. Poor price incentives and credit systems constrain agricultural production. As of 1998 farm wages are barely enough to provide food with nothing left over for clothing school fees supplies or medicine. Environmental problems including deteriorating water supply and diminishing common property resources further impact the poor. Industry suffers from limited credit fluctuating power supplies inflation and exchange rate instability. A possible bright spot is offshore gas potential. However much of the expected revenue from offshore gas development may already have been pledged as collateral for expenditure prior to 1998 and thus will go primarily to service debt. Recent evidence summarized in a paper by Debbie Aung Din Taylor (Appendix ...
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