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Current Economic Conditions and Selected Forecasts

Source: italy.usembassy.gov
Topic: Economic Conditions

Sort Desciption: Current Economic Conditions and. Selected Forecasts. Updated November 22 2006. Gail E. Makinen. Economic Policy Consultant. Government and Finance Division ...

Content Inside: Congressional Research Service The Library of Congress CRS Report for Congress Received through the CRS Web Order Code RL30329 Current Economic Conditions and Selected Forecasts Updated November 22 2006 Gail E. Makinen Economic Policy Consultant Government and Finance Division Current Economic Conditions and Selected Forecasts Summary U.S. real GDP growth has been positive for 18 consecutive quarters and the economyis considered to be in an expansion phase. As of the second quarter 2006 real or inflation-adjusted growth was nearly16% above its previous highnear the end of the 1991-2001 expansion. Real GDP grew at an annualized quarterly rate of 1.6% in the third quarter of 2006 down from a 2.6% and 5.6% rate during the second and first quarters. This compares with annualized rates of 3.4% 3.3% 4.2% and 1.8% respectively over the four quarters of 2005. The corresponding rates over the four quarters of 2004 were 3.9% 4.0% 3.1% and 2.6%. The rebound in payroll employment has been modest compared with past expansions. During October 2006 it was about 5.0 million above the level prevailing at the end of the recession (November 2001) but only about 3.3 million above the peak of the last expansion (March 2001). The unemployment rate rose to a high of 6.3% in June 2003; it has since declined and now (October 2006) stands at an expansion low of 4.4%. The low achieved during the last expansion was 3.8%. The other elements in the economic picture are promising: (1) A pick-up in output atthesametimeasemployment is growingslowlymeans that productivity(or output per worker) is increasing. As seen in the 1990s productivity growth is the key to raising the standard of living and is not necessarily associated with weak labor markets over time. The United States eventually experienced both rapid productivity and strong employment growth as the recovery broadened and deepened throughout the decade. (2) The headline inflation rate measured by the CPI ...

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