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Chapter 5: The Reality of Economic Growth: History and Prospect

Source: econ161.berkeley.edu
Topic: Economic History

Sort Desciption: Perhaps the most important lesson to draw from this short look back at economic history. is that the standard growth models of economists apply to a ...

Content Inside: Chapter 5 1 Final Chapter 5: The Reality of Economic Growth: History and Prospect J. Bradford DeLong http://econ161.berkeley.edu/ delong@econ.berkeley.edu Questions 1. What is modern economic growth? 2. What was the post-1973 productivity slowdown? What were its causes? Is the productivity slowdown now over? 3. Why are some nations so (relatively) rich and other nations so (relatively) poor? 4. What policies can make economic growth faster? 5. What are the prospects for successful and rapid economic development in tomorrow's world? 5.1 Before Modern Economic Growth Chapter 5 2 Final Before the Industrial Revolution Looking Back into Deep Time If we take the scattered and imperfect information we have about the global economy that we have from the distant past up to today we see a pattern like that of table 5.1. Table 5.1: Economic Growth Through Deep Time Longest-Run Economic Growth Year Population* GDP per Capita** -5000 5 $130 -1000 50 $160 1 170 $135 1000 265 $165 1500 425 $175 1800 900 $250 1900 1625 $850 1950 2515 $2030 1975 4080 $4640 2000 6120 $8175 *Millions **In year-2000 international dollars. Up until 1800 the growth rates of human populations were glacial. Population growth between 5000 B.C. and 1800 averaged less than one-tenth of a percent per year. (Nevertheless the cumulative magnitude of population growth was impressive carrying the number of human beings alive on the planet from perhaps 5 million in 5000 B.C. to 900 million in 1800; 7000 years is a long time.) Chapter 5 3 Final Up until 1500 as best we can tell there had been next to no growth in output per worker for the average human for millennia. Even in 1800 the average human alive had a material standard of living (and an economic productivity level) at best twice that of the average human alive in the year 1. The problem was not that there was no technological progress. There was. Humans have long been ingenious. Warrior priestly and bureaucratic elites in 1800 ...

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