Source: www.smart-energy-alliance.com
Topic: Forecasting
Sort Desciption: ... models won't be capable of keeping pace with smart metering and smart grid applications. There will be no choice but to expand forecasting models to deal with asset loading demand management switching ...
Content Inside: Adjusting Forecasting to the Smart Grid Era Advanced Forecasting While most utilities have been successful in looking backward to forecast there are limitations to what that process can deliver going forward. Using "experts" to provide their historical wisdom on the how the grid operates for the primary purpose of making sure that grid problems don't reoccur is no longer practical. The landscape is getting too complex because of transmission and distribution (low voltage network) separation more retail access more distributed generation and feeder switching and other active devices out in the grid. Demand management and time-of-use pricing impacts on consumption are also complicating tradit ional forecasting. Previously small forecasting mistakes had small impacts on energy consumption planning and generation operations schedules. Now incorrect forecasting in volatile power markets can have large detrimental impacts on the larger utility organization. More ominously current forecasting models won't be capable of keeping pace with smart metering and smart grid applications. There will be no choice but to expand forecasting models to deal with asset loading demand management switching and distributed generation. Since most forecasting today is top-down and system wide the utility will fi nd itself completely out of sorts when data is delivered from the bottom up using devices like smart meters offering possibilities for granularity as never before imagined. When forecasters are 6-15 percent off real demand at any given 15-minute interval the opportunities for improvement - using a bottom-up model - are immense. Forecasting performed in the context of the smart grid keeps the utility out of the spot markets and away from their exorbitant prices for power and maintains tight focus on construction money for the real challenges in the distribution grid. Making Forecasting Real in Real-time The ultimate goal of the ...
distributed generation forecasting